Had you asked me a year ago if Russia invading Ukraine would send me back to regular commentaries, I suspect I would have said yes, and yet, it is almost 11 months since my last post about Putin's problematic conception of Russian identity The thing is I found I had little to say. I am interested in providing thoughtful analysis where I can, but I am no expert on military affairs, nor on Russia, and that is a big part of understanding this war. So. convinced as I was that Ukrainians would fight for their independence, I had no reason to believe the many experts who said that Russia's overwhelming force would meet its initial objectives, and expected instead that initial success would be followed by a nasty and brutal guerrilla war that drag out and lead to even more refugees than we have seen. Yes it turned out differently, but I did not have the necessary knowledge, so I have read other people's blogs and twitter threads without feeling I could add much value.
For those who have not already found ready sources, may recommend Phillips Newsletter by the military studies scholar Phillips P. O'Brien's weekly reflections. I heartily recommend his book How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II, which gave taught this expert on Eastern Europe a great deal about the strategic realities of World War II. I follow some folks on Twitter, as well, but most of the time day-to-day events on the ground tell us little. That said, let me also tip my hat to Markos Moulitsas and Mark Sumner over at the Daily Kos, who provide excellent close to daily coverage that is worth reading no matter what you think of everything else at that site.
While I have been at my computer this today word has gone out Biden is set to announce that the US will deliver some M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and Germany will be sending Leopard 2. For those who want to see this war over sooner rather than later, this is a good thing, though from what I read the M1 Tank is not the best fit for Ukraine --it is the kind of fighting machine that the most well funded army in the world than for a country faced can use to great advantage, but is not so well suited to an underdog that needs to be careful with its resources. In particular the Abrams Tank it is far thirstier than the Leopard Tank, and that could be a problem for Ukraine, which until recently was heavily dependent on Russia for petroleum products. Still, having the Americans in on the game is important as a trust building measure, and the Ukrainians trained on it will be a formidable force. Above all I see this as about restoring trust between the US and its European allies. We should not forget that the US ignored several of its best established European allies when it decided to go to war in Iraq, and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan likewise sent shockwaves of concern among our NATO allies. Further, however unlikely it may seem right now, a pro-Russian Republican returning to the White House in 2025 is within the realm of possibility, and sending tanks will make it harder, though not impossible, for the US to walk away should Putin in desperation escalate in the hope of breaking the coalition supporting Ukraine in two along a Europe/US fault line. Indeed, the Netherlands will also end Leopard 2s in addition to the ones Poland and Finland were ready to send, and we may hear about others soon.
Readers of outlets that are highly supportive of Ukraine will likely be told that this shows Germany reluctantly getting in line, with Chancellor Scholz the perennial latecomer to the party to support Ukraine. It is an easy narrative to push for given history, when more than once Germany has been happy to prioritize relations with Russia over the smaller states between Russia and Germany. There are also a number of players happy to play up this line for their own purposes. In Poland, where an election campaign is looming, the PiS has a long history of demagoguery against Germany, and this fit that bill. Meanwhile, France has been the least generous major Western power, and so it suits Macron and the French establishment to make Germany the lightning rod. Just as importantly, for all the hubbub around "freeing the Leopards" in the run up to the Ramstein meeting last Friday, the notion that Germany alone was holding things back was well off the mark. Before the meeting only Finland had expressed willingness to join the coalition of countries willing to send Leopold 2s to Ukraine that Poland had been calling for. Why was this? I'm not plugged in to the policy makers in relevant countries, so I can't give a firm issue, but that situation speaks loudly against the notion that Germany was the problem. Perhaps if this helps put the worst of this war behind us sooner rather than later, and the US avoids a second dip into authoritarian populism, the Ramstein meeting will become seen as the moment when NATO finally got beyond the rift caused by George W. Bush's my way or the high way approach to Iraq.
